Signs of Hope

Everyone, it seems, is looking for something to believe in these days. Optimism has been hard to come by these past few years, particularly in the kitchen and bath industry. The unstable economic climate has left consumers wary of spending money on anything, forget big ticket items that clearly fall into the purview of “luxury” rather than “necessity.”

But while the fallout from the recession continues to reverberate throughout our industry, there appear to be signs that things are getting better. That’s according to a new Kitchen & Bath Design News survey, which polled more than 235 kitchen and bath dealers about the impact of the recession, the current outlook, future plans, perceived growth areas going forward, and their plans for recovery.

The results of the survey paint a picture of an industry still struggling, yet slowly but surely beginning to shift gears from “hold” mode to “planning” mode – and, in some cases, even to growth mode.

Economic Impact

There’s no question that the economic drop off of the past few years has been nothing short of devastating to a great many kitchen and bath professionals. Fewer customers, fiercer competition, more price-conscious consumers, smaller profit margins, and, in some cases, layoffs or even business closings have all dramatically altered the landscape of the kitchen and bath industry.

So it probably comes as no surprise that, when asked about their view of the economic impact over the past 18 months, the response was dismal. Of those polled, nearly one-third (30.3%) rated it as “very severe,” with another 31.5% rating it as “severe.” Some 27.5% said the impact was “moderate,” while a mere 9% saw it as “minimal,” and only 1.7% said it had no impact on their business at all (see Graph 1).

These sentiments were mirrored by the comments respondents made. Several dealers said they’d gotten through the last few years barely clinging by their fingernails, and many cited struggles not only with the obvious challenges – loss of home equity, tighter credit conditions, rising unemployment/job instability, and the consumer confidence crisis – but also with growing competition. This competition came from many sectors including Internet retailers.

The good news, though, is that as bad as it has been, most agree that it’s slowly getting better. In fact, nearly half of all survey respondents (47.2%) said they are already seeing some improvement, while another 12.2% noted that they are seeing a lot of improvement already. Of the remainder, 21.7% expect to see improved conditions later this year, and only 18.9% don’t expect things to get better until 2011 (see Graph 2).

Increases for 2010

Equally telling were projected increases in both the number of complete kitchen and baths they expect to sell in 2010 compared to 2009, and in the prices of these projects. Those surveyed said they sold an average of 25.4 complete kitchens and 16.3 complete baths in 2009 – yet they expect those numbers to increase to an average of 32.9 kitchens and 20.5 baths in 2010 (see Table at right).

And these numbers also don’t reflect the growing number of partial remodeling projects that dealers and designers are taking on in an effort to find new profit opportunities and customers. In fact, the survey showed that dealers view partial remodeling jobs or “refreshening” projects as the biggest potential growth area right now, with those polled saying they expect that nearly one-quarter (22.6%) of their projects in 2010 will be partial jobs, compared to 16.3% in 2009.

Project prices cited by those surveyed reflected a slow but growing trend toward recovery as well, with average kitchen prices inching up slowly from $35,486 in 2009 to an expected $38,072 in 2010. Likewise, the price of a bath project is projected to increase from $14,035 in 2009 to $15,406 in 2010, according to those surveyed.