What's in store for homes?

The Record (Hackensack N.J.)

HACKENSACK, N.J. -- Fifty years ago, new-home buyers were moving into Cape Cods, ranches and split-levels. Now they're living large, in McMansions with two-story entry foyers and lots of bathrooms. Or they're starting out (or ending up, as empty nesters) in more affordable condos and town houses.

What's next for the new home market? How will advances in technology and shifting consumer demands change the houses that builders will create over the next decade?

We asked builders and architects that question. Here are some of the trends they foresee:

* BIG ENOUGH: The average size of a new single-family house was about 1,600 square feet in 1973; now it's 2,400 square feet -- even though in the same period, family size dropped from about 3.1 people to about 2.6 people, according to Gopal Ahluwalia, an economist with the National Association of Home Builders. And not only is there more floor space, the ceilings are higher too, growing from an average of 8 feet to an average of 9 feet (and higher in luxury houses).

"It's the lifestyle," Ahluwalia said. "We can afford it."

But while houses, on average, are not going to shrink, they've gotten about as big as they're going to get in the foreseeable future, experts predict. One reason is that buyers can't afford much more space. And according to Kara Opanowicz, vice president of design for K. Hovnanian Homes of Red Bank, N.J., buyers are increasingly asking themselves: Do I really need all this space?

* GREEN AND GREENER: Environmentally sensitive construction has already reached the mass market. Most major builders are onboard with the federal Energy Star program, which calls for improvements (such as tighter windows) that make homes 20 percent to 30 percent more efficient than standard construction.

What's next? "We're starting to see a trend toward the zero-energy house," said Erv Bales, an architecture professor who specializes in energy-efficient building at New Jersey Institute of Technology in Newark.

The American Institute of Architects and the Green Building Council, among other groups, have set a goal to make all new construction "carbon-neutral" -- that is, using no fossil fuels -- by 2030.

"The only way you're going to get there is with solar power," Bales said.

The use of solar power is not yet in the mainstream, he said, but new technologies will make it easier and less expensive to tap into the sun's rays over the next decade.

For example, photovoltaic cells are now being incorporated into roof shingles. Although they are more expensive than regular shingles -- and are likely to remain so -- homeowners will be able to recover a lot of the extra cost with lower utility bills.

Bales thinks the next frontier will be water conservation, with more homeowners and builders putting in rainwater collection systems and using the water in their gardens and landscaping. Homeowners in the West, where water is scarce, already use these systems.

Many people are motivated by rising fuel costs.

"Home heating oil is $2 a gallon," said Montague, N.J., architect Hector V. Munoz-Baras, who designs energy-efficient homes. "What happens when it's $4?"

But green building is not just about saving money, Bales said.

"If you look at the United Nations definition of sustainability -- it's so your grandchildren's children will have a place to live," he said. "I think people are really tuned in to that."

* NEW URBANISM: Look for an increase in so-called New Urbanism or Smart Growth, which generally directs construction toward already developed parts of the state, and also calls for more dense communities.

Many people are willing to trade in the old dream of a suburban, single-family house on an acre of land for a shorter commute and a pedestrian-friendly community, said Mary Boorman of Pinnacle Builders in Chatham, N.J.